LESSONS FROM THE "MIDDLE EAST'S CASE"

That we are living in a society of politically conscious masses is without a doubt. Let us break this down a little bit. Political consciousness in this context means that the masses know what to expect from the politicians, political institutions and processes that take place at all the different levels of the society and the nation at large. The current ‘revolutionary protests’ in the middle east that has seen the ousting of Husni Mubarak and an end to his 30 year undemocratic regime can be attributed to the rise of the politically conscious masses.

Middle East is just a smaller picture of the global level of political enlightenment. What enlightenment combined with the realization of the role of public opinion can do is quite inestimable.

What sub-Saharan Africa can possibly learn from the Middle East is indeed a lot. Imagine an Egypt style mass revolt in Zimbabwe. The question that comes to mind is whether Mugabe can be overthrown as his Egyptian counterpart? The answer is both YES and NO!

YES only if the military decides to do so, of course through a coup d’etat. But the chances of a coup happening in Zimbabwe is minimal given the current state of affairs, the fact that Mugabe is the commander-in-chief of the armed forces tells you volumes about this, the military elites are very loyal supporters who have been put in place through the institution of clientelism typical of many despots around the world as a means to suppress any kind of rebellion in the military.

On the other hand Zimbabweans can not oust Mugabe the “Egyptian style”, this is for the simple yet complex reason that the people of Zimbabwe have not yet reached the level of political consciousness to employ public protests to overthrow a president who has been clinging to power.

Looking at the social-political history of Middle East in the recent past one will not by any chance miss the degree and frequency at which the public has employed public protest to raise their concerns about issues.  

The lessons for sub-Saharan Africa is learning from the mistakes of what is happening in the middle east and totally avoiding that which is not progressive and employing that which is productive, these may include.

The realization that demolishing the existing structures and institutions without suggesting or having ready another that is better and ready to replace the demolished one is not a solution to the existing problems and it can only lead to more problems.

A second factor that sub-Saharan Africa can possibly learn from the middle east is realizing the role of public opinion and what public opinion is capable of doing in advancing grievances when the government becomes unresponsive to the needs of its citizenry.